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Chuck---

I appreciate your comments, as I concur completely. I too have traded a very long time (25 years), and have found that markets want to trend. And do, but not as readily as most traders expect them to.

10-4 on the correlations being just a little better than random. Enough to keep me out of the workforce, but not enough to make me declare that I have all the answers and don't have to keep alert when the markets pop.

Droughts are my friend.

leonardo---

Dan,

I think that you would be much better off in your search for knowledge if you abandon any belief that there is any "hidden order" to the markets.

The only "order" is not hidden. In futures markets the "order" is that the distribution of prices has thick tails that would indicate that trend following is more likely to work than in a "normal" distribution.

There is also some serial corellation that shows that if the last price is up the next price is more likely to be up than down. There is also some serial correlation in volatility so that if the last measure of volatility is increasing the next measure should show an increase.

These correlations are very slight. Just a litlle beyond random. That is why trading is so difficult.

I've been trading and studying markets for more than 35 years and this is all that I have learned about their orderliness. If anyone can provide additional factual information supported by research I would greatly appreciate the contribution to my meager knowledge.

I am not influenced by opinions. I want hard evidence of any "orderliness".

A couple of comments:

Indicators such as moving averages are not systems. They are merely tools that may solve problems or answer questions about the markets. They are as good or as bad as the manner in which they are applied.

Although I have never purchased Jurik's indicators I have seen some of them applied to charts and they do seem to produce different patterns than the conventional indicators. Whether or not these indicators are any better would depend entirely on how they were applied. For example Jurik's Moving Average does appear to be faster and smoother than the conventional moving average. However if you were using the moving average as a setup condition it would probably not be any better than a conventional moving average. But if you were using the moving average as the actual entry trigger the Jurik Moving Average might be much better.

I have no association with Jurik and I have never met him. I think Jurik is an honest vendor with an honest product. His prices seem fair and I think he is very intelligent and creative. I think he has made some valuable contributions to the field of technical analysis.

I just got a fabulous method for a non-lagged MA. Also see recent article in S & c magazine detailing a similar method

The Jurik stuff appeasr a little blown out...eg missile tracking accuracy !!!! Gimme a break.

If you play around enough with moving averages you can develop one without lag or hardly any lag without forking over your worldly possessions to Jurik

I hope this thread hasn't lost all interest. Although I'm just a beginner, I'm very interested to hear from others regarding their experience with Mr. Jurik's indicators.

As an aside, if better algorithms produce superior indicators which in turn lead to better trading results, is this consistent with the idea that markets are random or that markets behave chaotically? If the markets are chaotic, does it mean that a whole new set of mathematical modelling is required to exploit the hidden order, as opposed to refinement of old methods? Any comments would be greatly appreciated.

I have the Jurik Moving Average and have produced systems with superior results to the same system using a simple moving average. I have not tried all of the other kinds of averages, exponential, displaced ect. I also found the jurik average to give better results than the other adaptive averages I have tried, although I did not do a full test comparison. The main benefit that I found was that they allowed the systems to enter and exit sooner as you would expect them to do. I do not have experience with their other products. I don't work for them.

Peter,

Yes, I'd be interested in the opinions and findings of others also on this topic. An earlier response I received on this subject was that neural nets were perfect curve fitting and that they are relatively time intensive.

One wonders if there are 'generic', 'true for all markets' indicators to be found. I suspect that this may be wishful thinking. There is also the case of garbage in garbage out.

Mr. Jurik offers several adaptive indicators which can be integrated into systems/indicators in
ts4/ts2k el alone, or a much more complex 6 or 7 step process involving
several software packages (including neural nets) to produce trading
systems (http://www.jurikres.com).

1) What has been the experience of list members with Jurik's adaptive
indicators? Are there adaptive indicators in the public domain which are just as good?

2) Have you been able to develop systems in el using the Jurik adaptive
indicators plus of course your ideas for entry and stops that are superior to the use of traditional indicators or adaptive indicators in the public domain?

3) Has anyone bought the whole Jurik shebgang, and built systems with
genetic algorithms and neural nets? How successful were the resulting
systems?

4) Has anyone compared the simple approach: EL with Jurik indicators or public domain indicators VS
the complex approach: Jurik indicators plus the whole shebang? Which
approach provided superior trading systems? Or, did the two approaches
perform in real time about the same? Was it worth the substantial extra money and
time using the complex approach which includes pre-processing,
developing lead indicators, developing neural nets, using genetic
algorithms to develop trading rules, etc.?

5) Even if you haven't used the Jurik products, but have an opinion on
this issue (perhaps based on other neural net experiences, or other experiences in general), I would like
to hear from you.

Please feel free to post your thoughts on this issue for all traderclub
members to see, and/or contact me directly.

Peter is phoon@ibm.net